ICM calculator: tournament equity and chop deals
In a tournament, chips are not money. ICM turns every stack into its share of the remaining prize pool — what matters on the bubble, at a pay jump and when the table starts talking about a deal.
Comma separated, one per remaining player.
Comma separated, largest first. Places already paid out do not count.
Taken off first place before the chop and won by whoever wins.
- Player 1 — 40 chips
- 34.74
- ICM chop. Chip chop would pay 40 (40.0% of the chips).
- Player 2 — 40 chips
- 34.74
- ICM chop. Chip chop would pay 40 (40.0% of the chips).
- Player 3 — 15 chips
- 22.33
- ICM chop. Chip chop would pay 15 (15.0% of the chips).
- Player 4 — 5 chips
- 8.19
- ICM chop. Chip chop would pay 5 (5.0% of the chips).
Malmuth-Harville: finish probabilities weighted by each payout
ICM assumes every remaining chip is equally likely to move, ignoring skill, position and blind pressure. It is the standard model for pay-jump decisions and deals, not a full description of tournament equity.
What is ICM in poker?
The Independent Chip Model converts tournament chip stacks into expected prize money. In a cash game a chip is worth its face value. In a tournament it is not: you cannot cash out your stack, you are paid by finishing position, and the player who busts first gets nothing however many chips they once had.
ICM answers one question — if the tournament were played out from here by players of equal skill, what would each stack be worth on average? The answer drives three decisions: whether to risk your tournament on the bubble, how to play near a pay jump, and how to split the money in a deal.
How the ICM model works: a three-player example
The standard model is Malmuth-Harville. It assumes the chance of finishing first equals your share of the chips. Once someone has finished first, the chance of finishing second is your share of the chips that are left, and so on down the payouts. Every possible finishing order gets a probability, and each player’s equity is the sum of every payout weighted by the chance of finishing there.
Take three players with 5,000, 3,000, 2,000 chips and payouts of 50 / 30 / 20 — a prize pool of 100, so every result reads as a share of it:
| Chips | Share of chips | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | ICM equity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5,000 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 33.9% | 16.1% | 38.39 |
| 3,000 | 30.0% | 30.0% | 37.5% | 32.5% | 32.75 |
| 2,000 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 28.6% | 51.4% | 28.86 |
- Inputs
- Chip stacks5,000, 3,000, 2,000
- Payouts still to be won50, 30, 20
- Left to play for (optional)0
- Result
- Player 1 — 5,000 chips38.39
- Player 2 — 3,000 chips32.75
- Player 3 — 2,000 chips28.86
ICM vs chip EV
Chip EV counts chips at face value. ICM counts what they are worth. The gap between the two is what makes tournament poker different: chips you lose are worth more than chips you win, because losing them can end your tournament while winning them cannot raise you above first prize.
| Chips | Share of chips | Share of prize pool |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | 40.0% | 34.7% |
| 40 | 40.0% | 34.7% |
| 15 | 15.0% | 22.3% |
| 5 | 5.0% | 8.2% |
ICM chop vs chip chop: how to split a deal
When the last few players agree to stop and divide the remaining prize money, there are two standard ways to do it:
- Chip chop. Everyone is guaranteed the smallest payout still on offer, and the rest is split in proportion to chips.
- ICM chop. Everyone gets their ICM equity — the average result if play continued.
| Chips | Chip chop | ICM chop | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2,500,000 | 8,000 | 7,679 | -321 |
| 1,500,000 | 6,400 | 6,550 | +150 |
| 1,000,000 | 5,600 | 5,771 | +171 |
Many deals leave part of the money on the table. Take 2,000 off first place, split the other 18,000 now, and play on for the rest. The calculator handles this with the “left to play for” field: here the chip leader would lock in 6,679 by ICM and keep playing for the 2,000.
An ICM figure is a starting point for a negotiation, not a verdict. A player with a clear skill edge, or with position on a short stack as the blinds rise, can reasonably ask for more.
Pay jumps and the bubble
ICM matters most when someone is about to bust. Four players are left, three are paid (50 / 30 / 20), and the two big stacks of 4,000 get all-in against each other while the short stacks watch. In chips this is a coin flip, so you need 50.0% equity to call.
With the payouts counted, you need 75.8%. The extra 25.8 points is the risk premium: busting now costs far more than doubling up gains, because the short stacks are about to cash for free if you lose.
That is why big stacks avoid each other on the bubble and attack the medium stacks instead, and why a call that is correct by pot odds can be a fold in a tournament.
Limits of ICM
- It ignores skill. A stronger player’s chips are worth more than ICM says, a weaker player’s less.
- It ignores position and blinds. A short stack about to pay the big blind is worth less than the model shows.
- It ignores future play. Models that simulate the hands still to come (future game simulation) correct some of this, at the cost of many assumptions.
- Malmuth-Harville slightly overvalues short stacks, which is worth remembering in deals.
Even so, it is the model every ICM trainer and deal calculator starts from, because it is consistent and needs nothing but the stacks and the payouts.
ICM calculator vs ICM solver
This calculator turns stacks into money. ICM solvers and push/fold trainers go a step further: they combine those values with ranges to say which hands to shove or call in a given spot. They all start from the equities calculated here.
This number covers one spot. PokeAI covers your game.
The calculator answers how much. PokeAI answers why — on the hands you actually played, using this same engine for every number it gives you.
Questions about this calculator
- What is ICM in poker?
- The Independent Chip Model converts tournament chip stacks into expected prize money by weighting each possible finishing position by its payout.
- Why is the chip leader’s share of the money smaller than their share of the chips?
- Because tournament chips have diminishing value. Doubling your stack does not double your equity — you cannot win more than first prize — which is what makes bubble folds correct that would be calls in a cash game.
- What is the difference between a chip chop and an ICM chop?
- A chip chop guarantees everyone the lowest remaining payout and splits the rest by chips. An ICM chop pays each player their ICM equity. With three or more players, chip chops favour the chip leader.
- Can I use ICM to settle a final-table deal?
- Yes, ICM is the usual starting point for a deal. Players with a skill edge often negotiate above their ICM number, and some deals leave money to play for.
- Which payouts should I enter?
- Only the payouts still to be won, largest first. If four players are left and three places are paid, enter three payouts. Places already paid to busted players do not count.
- How many players can the calculator handle?
- It solves Malmuth-Harville exactly, enumerating every finishing order. That covers a full final table; for larger fields with many places paid it asks you to enter fewer places.
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