Fold equity calculator

Break-even fold equity formula

folds needed = risk / (risk + reward)

A pure bluff has two outcomes: everyone folds and you win the pot, or someone calls and you lose your bet. It breaks even when the folds pay for the calls. Bet 50 into a pot of 100 and you risk 50 to win 100, so the bluff needs folds 50 / 150 = 33.3% of the time.

Fold equity is the value the bet gets from those folds. If your opponent folds more often than the break-even figure, the bluff makes money even with the worst hand at the table.

Fold equity by bluff size

Smaller bluffs need fewer folds, but they also get fewer: a small bet is easier to call. Choosing a size is a trade between the price of the bluff and how much of your opponent’s range it pushes out.

Choosing a bluff size: an example

Say you can bluff the river for half the pot or for the whole pot, with 100 in the middle. You expect your opponent to fold 40% of the time to the small bet and 55% to the big one. The small bluff needs 33.3% and gets 40%; the big one needs 50.0% and gets 55%.

Both clear their line, and both earn the same: +10 for the half-pot bluff, +10 for the pot-sized one. More folds do not make the bigger bluff better on their own; they have to clear a higher bar. What decides between sizes is the margin over the break-even figure multiplied by the pot plus the bet: 150 × 6.7 points for the small bluff, 200 × 5 for the big one.

Semi-bluff EV: when your bluff can still win

A semi-bluff is a bet with a hand that is behind now but can improve — a draw. When it is called, it still wins some of the time, and that equity pays for part of the risk. So it needs fewer folds than a pure bluff of the same size.

When called, the bet is worth equity × (pot + 2 × bet) − bet. If that is negative, the folds have to cover the difference; if it is positive, the bet makes money even when your opponent never folds.

Take a flush draw on the turn: nine outs out of 46 cards, 19.6%. Bet 50 into 100. When called, the bet is worth -10.87, so it needs folds only 9.8% of the time — against 33.3% for a pure bluff of the same size.

With a big draw the folds can stop mattering. A flush draw plus an open-ender on the flop has 54.1% with two cards to come. Moved all-in for the size of the pot, it is worth +62.35 when called — profitable before your opponent folds a single hand.

Fold equity vs MDF

The break-even fold figure and minimum defence frequency are two halves of one number. A half-pot bluff needs 33.3% folds; the defender has to continue with 66.7% to stop it. They always add up to 100%. If your opponent folds more than MDF says they should, your bluffs print; if they fold less, bet your value hands and give up the bluffs.

How to estimate how often they fold

The calculator gives the target; the hard part is the estimate. Think about the hands your opponent arrives with and how many of them can continue:

• Count the strong hands in their range. Hands that never fold set a ceiling on your fold equity.
• Weak pairs and missed draws fold to bigger bets more readily than to small ones.
• Boards that favour your range — high cards after you raised before the flop — make your story more believable.
• Players who rarely fold have little fold equity to give. Against them, value bet and skip the bluffs.

Fold equity in tournaments

Short-stacked shoves live on fold equity, and the payouts add to it: near the bubble, a call that risks a player’s tournament has to clear a higher bar than chips alone suggest, so opponents fold more. The ICM calculator shows how much the stacks are worth in money, which is where that extra folding comes from.